I visited many organizations in South India since the FINAMI struck in early Ocober of 2008 .Spoke to many CEOs who are running huge businesses . All I could hear and see was they are all busy having several rounds of meetings on a new found subject called COST Cutting . One of them has organized this cost cutting meeting in a nearby five star hotel !!! I saw from News papers and TV that many are in serious problems and hence cost cutting ..
One very reputed firm have gone to the extent of asking Sharukh Khan to give us confidence .
This time the King Khan himself did not appear very convincing and it appeared that things are really much worse than what is .
My immediate response was to minimize my risk by using all the cash and getting ready for the end of the world irrespective of the fact whether Mr Khan is going to get an OSCAR for this great act of "courage " that he risks his own reputation .( he get paid a Kings Ransom anyway for all this deceit ) Kal Ho Na Ho . Well other Stars have a good opportunity now to have some CBM for the Aam Admi ( confidence building measures )
One CEO in the automobile component sector called me up to say that he wants my help immediately to rework on cost cutting and has admitted that his business which was growing at 25 % per annum has already lost 60 to 70 % of business as the Truck Manufactureres have cut back on production and he is very worried .He wants to tell all those who are going to loose their jobs that he would have never done any of these retrenchment on hos own ,but the consultant has convinced the investor to do so and hence he is helpless now . All except his favorite boys and 'men for all seasons' please look for other jobs with out any further delay .!!
Another CEO of one of the first ten Indian corporates has already removed all powers from all others and decided to approve for himself all bills and stopped water supply .
Yet another decided to cut severly the payouts to contractors and decided to delay the payments till such time he gets paid by his creditors .
Yet another decided to send back as many employees ,especially the ones which are yet to be confirmed ,in additon to the not so useful ones .
Another one went on to try reducing the salary payable to all employees by 50%
All CEOs were not so lucky to sack employees as employees could get the blessing of one of Modern India's most progressive and upcoming political leader from Mumbai - I am shifting my loyalty to him as he is so powerful and perhaps can save my job as well - who made just one telephone call and the CEO reversed his decision immediately and came up with the classic lie which managments have been specialising " employees are our most valuable assests" .
Instead the CEO has opted to sack many of his expat staff and made a huge saving and unfortunately there was no plitical party working for the rights of employees from other countries . May be International Labour Organization should come up with soem solutions esp we have millions of Indians working abroad and if the CEOs out there does the same thing nothing can be doen about it .
Well another CEO thought that it is better to sack the junior most employee and save the firm from disaster.
Many organizations in Garment Exports, Software , BPO , and anyone having business incomes arising from USA has lost out the maximum . Shiping companies have decided to put vessels on anchor and lay off the crew as the freight rates have fallen so badly .
Some of the richest guys . ( a rich guy is is defined as " very poor guy with lots of money" **!!) whose name appears in the Forbes richy rich boys have lost the maximum as their share prices saw a south eastern dive .And the guys made good by buying out their own shares at much lower prices with the expectaions of a future rise .
Steel prices have fallen. Cement prices have fallen , Crude prices have fallen . Wow the Finance minister must indeed be given a nobel prize for bringing inflation down by one percantage point to the benefit of the Aam Admi .
But when I went to buy vegetables in the market I was shocked to see the prices of many items have seen growth like never before .
May be I get back to my village and start growing vegetables in the fields than working in a metro where I got to buy all things .
I have heard the Sub prime crisis has made investments in housing a foolish activity . Yet my efforts to find a house with an affordable rent is not making any headway as no one is reducing the rent in line with the market realities .In fact it is going up . I think it is time to search for the nearst railway station to have a roof over my head .
Micheal Champy will find new customers soon as RE-ENGINEERING is going to get fashionable again and LEAN manufacturing will be forced on firms who had the tendency to splurge in the cool breeze that graced them for over the past five years and fuelled growth . Any way I am going to take those books from the attic as some day soon I will be in demand trying to save the compnies in distress . This reminds me of the Movie TITANIC where the hero hands over the life boat to save the heroin after the ship is broken and passngers and crew are in the chill waters without sufficient life jackets or other ships to save them .. I am sure some of them will survive but many will perish and if I am able to save a few it must be a miracle .
I found a new definition for height of optimism as I heard someone saying that Barak Obama will change the world .
Jesus are you Listening ?
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
I may not escape this Financial Tsunami (FINAMI)
Over the past one month ( October 2008 )the entire world around me seems collapsing .
It was known to me over the past two years that the US housing sector was getting worse as one of the clients of mine at Chennai who was processing the loan applications was explaining about this and I thought how does it matter to me anyway .
The news papers kept reminding and friends and relatives out there was wary about speaking openly as they suspected that we might change our opinion of a prosperous infallible USA.
The news after Katrina and Rita which has struck the Florida coast has revealed to me the helplessness of the most power full nation on earth to respond to natural calamities and exposed the poverty there .
The relief efforts there were not any greater than the ones we experience around here , where the administrators claim all is well ,even when the minimum relief has not reached those who are badly affected and the media goes to trivia as usual to expose the next scam , rape , war and terrorism and we all conveniently forget what happened last month and look at the new one as the media sets the agenda for us and we are always ready to go by it and send to oblivion things which are important to us ,like our problems , financial , educational , health etc .
So when the financial system has gone totally out of gear and dollar becomes dear , what will happen to us as ordinary individuals who want to lead their lives and pay their taxes, repay the borrowings with interest , take care of the expenses ?
I am so scared now like never before whether I will succeed in meeting my financial obligations and commitments as regularly as I used to so far . I am not free of debts ,though I own no solid assets . When I read inthe newspapers that another farmer has committed suicide since he had taken a laon of a lakh of Rs and could not repay I keep wondering how many times I should have taken my life by now . WellI live on hope and hope alone . WhenI quit my Govt of IOndia job the onyl capital I had was courage . Oophs I suspect it is vanishing now !!!.
Mostly my liabilities are to major global financial institutions such as city bank, abn amro, GE, Stanchart ,HSBC Amex etc on personal loans which I had taken to pay for the kids education and other essentials as the organizations I work for do not pay on time or sometimes choose not to pay at all . So the burden goes up as all these loan givers are chargine me interest which will make Shylock noble by comparison and over and above penal interests in case of delays which is forced on me by the payment systems adopted by the Indian corporate houses.Besides, the taxes are so very high and successive governments have done nothing except making promises of helping those upcoming well meaning individuals and organizations ,but the bankers seems to be working in opposite directions .
After the recent Singur incident in West Bengal where Tatas ,which is one of the most respected industrial houses of India ,got land for the nano car project at rates which I will never get and interests which are either nil or at rates below the LIBOR rates and repayments at such cool options spanning over 100 years etc . I am of the opinion that all govts , whether they belong to left ,right or center are all helping only those who have the wherewithal and they have no clue to help the AAM ADMI or the common man . Other wise why should MR Ratan Tata and Ambani and Birla pay the same rates of tax tax which I am required to pay and they get things for free and I got to pay rates which are unsustainable . ??? I am convinced that No one will answer this question in my life time . If asked there may be a law to punish and prevent me from asking such questions as it does not sound too good to the policy makers .
I wanted the Finance Minister (FM)to remove tax on all employees . Will he ?
I want FM to remove tax on all small businesses which has a turn over less than Rs. one crore last year .Extend the tax holidays offered to all those in SEZ and IT Parks to all those upcoming Indian organizations in other sectors and especially in the maximum job and wealth creating service sectors too. Will NASSCOM take note ?Will any political leadership take note ?
I want the interest rates on credit cards to be pegged on rates not more than twice that of Prime lending rates of Indian Commercial banks . Other wise I will never be able to finish the repayments as 45% interest is too much . Besides, is it not good for the country that I buy on credit cards and most of us buy on credit cards so that FM can monitor the spending . I also find the current systems of credit card purchases are not encouraged by the FM . When I buy anything on credit card the seller do not give the 2 to 5% discounts he other wise gives for cash purchases and also charges 2% extra if card is used . So I pay up 130% extra , provided I did not delay my payment other wise 12.36% Service tax is to be paid .So the policy helps only those who have black money and Greshams law applies here and the policy makers are not talking about it at all .
So instead ,if I was a holder of black money ,fake money , I would have been better off by now compared to being a law abiding citizen ,who sold his immovable property to ensure 100% tax compliance .
I do not think I can survive any longer . May be I guess , the economic melt down will reduce incomes further or increase expenses so much that I will be forced to fail and I may not escape from it this time and I guess this financial Tsunami (FINAMI )will wash me away amongst many who are like me .
I shared this with my wife and kids a couple of days ago and they are paranoid now .I think I made a mistake of telling them the fears i genuinely have . But I guess things are only going to get worse from now on and I have no clue on how we could respond this time.
Any advise from you ??? Not looking for sympathies but only viable solutions .
Jacob Cherian
25 October 2008
It was known to me over the past two years that the US housing sector was getting worse as one of the clients of mine at Chennai who was processing the loan applications was explaining about this and I thought how does it matter to me anyway .
The news papers kept reminding and friends and relatives out there was wary about speaking openly as they suspected that we might change our opinion of a prosperous infallible USA.
The news after Katrina and Rita which has struck the Florida coast has revealed to me the helplessness of the most power full nation on earth to respond to natural calamities and exposed the poverty there .
The relief efforts there were not any greater than the ones we experience around here , where the administrators claim all is well ,even when the minimum relief has not reached those who are badly affected and the media goes to trivia as usual to expose the next scam , rape , war and terrorism and we all conveniently forget what happened last month and look at the new one as the media sets the agenda for us and we are always ready to go by it and send to oblivion things which are important to us ,like our problems , financial , educational , health etc .
So when the financial system has gone totally out of gear and dollar becomes dear , what will happen to us as ordinary individuals who want to lead their lives and pay their taxes, repay the borrowings with interest , take care of the expenses ?
I am so scared now like never before whether I will succeed in meeting my financial obligations and commitments as regularly as I used to so far . I am not free of debts ,though I own no solid assets . When I read inthe newspapers that another farmer has committed suicide since he had taken a laon of a lakh of Rs and could not repay I keep wondering how many times I should have taken my life by now . WellI live on hope and hope alone . WhenI quit my Govt of IOndia job the onyl capital I had was courage . Oophs I suspect it is vanishing now !!!.
Mostly my liabilities are to major global financial institutions such as city bank, abn amro, GE, Stanchart ,HSBC Amex etc on personal loans which I had taken to pay for the kids education and other essentials as the organizations I work for do not pay on time or sometimes choose not to pay at all . So the burden goes up as all these loan givers are chargine me interest which will make Shylock noble by comparison and over and above penal interests in case of delays which is forced on me by the payment systems adopted by the Indian corporate houses.Besides, the taxes are so very high and successive governments have done nothing except making promises of helping those upcoming well meaning individuals and organizations ,but the bankers seems to be working in opposite directions .
After the recent Singur incident in West Bengal where Tatas ,which is one of the most respected industrial houses of India ,got land for the nano car project at rates which I will never get and interests which are either nil or at rates below the LIBOR rates and repayments at such cool options spanning over 100 years etc . I am of the opinion that all govts , whether they belong to left ,right or center are all helping only those who have the wherewithal and they have no clue to help the AAM ADMI or the common man . Other wise why should MR Ratan Tata and Ambani and Birla pay the same rates of tax tax which I am required to pay and they get things for free and I got to pay rates which are unsustainable . ??? I am convinced that No one will answer this question in my life time . If asked there may be a law to punish and prevent me from asking such questions as it does not sound too good to the policy makers .
I wanted the Finance Minister (FM)to remove tax on all employees . Will he ?
I want FM to remove tax on all small businesses which has a turn over less than Rs. one crore last year .Extend the tax holidays offered to all those in SEZ and IT Parks to all those upcoming Indian organizations in other sectors and especially in the maximum job and wealth creating service sectors too. Will NASSCOM take note ?Will any political leadership take note ?
I want the interest rates on credit cards to be pegged on rates not more than twice that of Prime lending rates of Indian Commercial banks . Other wise I will never be able to finish the repayments as 45% interest is too much . Besides, is it not good for the country that I buy on credit cards and most of us buy on credit cards so that FM can monitor the spending . I also find the current systems of credit card purchases are not encouraged by the FM . When I buy anything on credit card the seller do not give the 2 to 5% discounts he other wise gives for cash purchases and also charges 2% extra if card is used . So I pay up 130% extra , provided I did not delay my payment other wise 12.36% Service tax is to be paid .So the policy helps only those who have black money and Greshams law applies here and the policy makers are not talking about it at all .
So instead ,if I was a holder of black money ,fake money , I would have been better off by now compared to being a law abiding citizen ,who sold his immovable property to ensure 100% tax compliance .
I do not think I can survive any longer . May be I guess , the economic melt down will reduce incomes further or increase expenses so much that I will be forced to fail and I may not escape from it this time and I guess this financial Tsunami (FINAMI )will wash me away amongst many who are like me .
I shared this with my wife and kids a couple of days ago and they are paranoid now .I think I made a mistake of telling them the fears i genuinely have . But I guess things are only going to get worse from now on and I have no clue on how we could respond this time.
Any advise from you ??? Not looking for sympathies but only viable solutions .
Jacob Cherian
25 October 2008
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